Falling fertility rates in most of the world put us on track to reach the global peak rate of energy use ahead of the actual population peak, as early as 10 years from now if the trends of the last decade persist. Marking a major turning point, the decline of the post-peak world will involve many transformations—and not all bad. It is not too early to think about how our priorities and values might change in the second half of this century. Full details can be found at Do the Math in the associated post: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/06/brace-for-peak-impact/ Chapter Content: 00:00 Intro 00:37 Why It Matters 01:52 Fertility around the World 02:53 UN TFR Model 03:38 Alternate TFR Model 04:27 UN Survival Model 04:51 U.S. Life Expectancy 05:26 Flattening Survival Model 06:06 Power per Capita 06:46 Model Results 08:18 Limits to Growth and Reflections 12:05 Do the Math and Closing
  • Ben Matthews@sopuli.xyzEnglish
    2·
    7 days ago

    This makes sense for mid-latitudes, but the timing of peak power will depend on how much energy the current youth in India and children in central Africa will aspire to use as they get older. That’s hard to ‘predict’ - it’s their choice of development pathway, but hope they don’t follow China’s route with so much cement, steel, roads, there are other options.

    • Condour75@slrpnk.netEnglish
      2·
      6 days ago

      The global south will need a lot of air conditioning to simply survive. However, a lot of that energy should be carbon neutral if renewable trends continue.