No, even if you study all your life, it won’t let you predict the future. People study stocks all their lives and they still can’t beat a simple stock index in the long term. So stop listening to articles that make wrong predictions.
Like Mearshimer who in 2014 predicted Putin had no further territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Yet Putin annexed further regions in Ukraine, despite this “expert” studying stuff.
I’m questioning his expertise. Every time he says “Russia wouldn’t do that” Russia does it. And he is still considered an expert despite several claims of how Russia:
Wouldn’t try to annex more of Ukraine after Crimea (did it)
Could only have limited military aims in Ukraine (went straight for the capital)
The rest of the former Soviet republics would support Russia (big oof, everyone but Belarus refused to support Russia)
At this point, you just have to say he’s gotten everything wrong, but continues to double down
Mearsheimer is not a military expert, so he has no idea how the war will turn out. Even if we accept he’s an expert on politics, the actual situation on the ground will affect the future more. I’d rather listen to what generals say
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No, even if you study all your life, it won’t let you predict the future. People study stocks all their lives and they still can’t beat a simple stock index in the long term. So stop listening to articles that make wrong predictions.
Like Mearshimer who in 2014 predicted Putin had no further territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Yet Putin annexed further regions in Ukraine, despite this “expert” studying stuff.
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I’m questioning his expertise. Every time he says “Russia wouldn’t do that” Russia does it. And he is still considered an expert despite several claims of how Russia:
At this point, you just have to say he’s gotten everything wrong, but continues to double down
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Mearsheimer is not a military expert, so he has no idea how the war will turn out. Even if we accept he’s an expert on politics, the actual situation on the ground will affect the future more. I’d rather listen to what generals say
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This is all old articles. Of course, the trajectories put out there are the same, but you need to follow what’s happening on the ground
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7-2023
What’s possible and not possible will be shown this summer.
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