- cross-posted to:
- worldnewsnonus@lemy.lol
- cross-posted to:
- worldnewsnonus@lemy.lol
Iran said it launched dozens of drones and ballistic missiles towards Israel on Saturday in a major attack following days of acute tension building up in the region and warnings from the US and elsewhere about a wider conflict erupting.
Air attack warning sirens began wailing over Jerusalem just before 2am local time on Sunday after the weapons were fired a few hours earlier from Iran with US and Jordanian military assisting Israel’s air defenses in intercepting the first incoming barrage.
With weapons believed to be still in the air en route to Israel, Iran’s mission to the United Nations posted on X: “Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded.”
However, it threatened more severe action in the face of further Israeli aggression and warned the US and Jordan specifically not to assist Israel.
Edit: here are links to the NYT and BBC live feeds.
Edit 2: updated summary and archive to reflect article changes.
Iran’s response isn’t proportional though. Israel made a single strike on military leaders using a nearby embassy. Launching dozens of drones is an escalation.
It’s not even a smart escalation. It allows Israel to claim they were attacked disproportionately and launch strikes on Iran’s actual military in country. Iran has much worse defenses against cruise missiles and drones. Now they may lose what sympathy they had from other countries.
I predict the US will free the ship Iran took today within a few weeks. Maybe the Navy will knock out all Iran’s anti-air radar in the south, just as a show of force, and then not attack anything. That would be a good way to tell them to stop without killing.
Israel escalated by striking an embassy, breaking the Vienna convention, to Iran arming insurgents. That was Israel launching four missiles at Iranian sovereign territory, targeting high-ranking Iranian military officials, on ground that is considered to be sacrosanct internationally to preserve diplomacy in times of war.
The thing is, the drones are proportional retaliation, but still, it should be on both sides to try to de-escalate.
What I see though is that Israel wasn’t even condemned for the attack, in fact they tried to claim it wasn’t even an embassy they hit. Now the problem is that Iran, with its leadership and government being how it is, can’t let this go as they are humiliated. When Trump killed Soleimani, which was a similar strike (but not at an embassy!), Iran launched attacks at US bases, wounding US troops which the US let go without retaliation. That’s how it got de-escalated.
Your point with “let’s humiliate Iran by performing a show of force” is that they won’t take it and de-escalate. It will make it worse. I’m not saying we should let Iran walk all over us, but stepping in to cover one shitty side against another will just lead to either war or another 9/11.
You didn’t mention the ship they took. If you think the missiles and drones (dozens) are proportional, then the ship makes no sense. Commandeering a civilian ship is clearly extra and disproportionate. They’re probably not going to give that up without getting something in return.
The leaders of Iran are desperate to seem tough to their domestic audience, like Putin. That’s why they did this. Unfortunately for the people of Iran, this is going to hurt them further with sanctions.
Iran attacked the specific military installations that Israel used to perform their highly illegal attack on the Iranian embassy. This is the most textbook example of textbook examples of appropriate, proportional and measured self-defense we have seen in a very long time in the entire region. The relevant thing to count is not the number of missiles or drones, but the number of targets and their relevance to the case.