• PugJesus@lemmy.worldOP
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    1 month ago

    It’s Gallup, Gallup is generally reliable.

    The issue is that most people do not put a great deal of thought into foreign policy, and thus often have very contradictory views - such as when most American voters approved of a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine after the first days of the war, but if asked if they would support a No-Fly Zone if it had the risk of US jets shooting down Russian planes (you know, exactly what a no-fly zone IS), half of those supporting swapped their opinion.

    • Optional@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      Gallup is generally reliable, for a pollster, so I looked:

      Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted March 1-20, 2024, with a random sample of 1,016 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

      Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 80% cellphone respondents and 20% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

      So, war-dialing and hoping (a) the person picks up (b) the person doesn’t hang up immediately © wants to give their opinion for 20 questions, and (d) yes 1,000 people out of 80 million voters. Also it was two months ago.

      Not to mention, the headline is “Approve of Israel’s actions” not “Understands what diplomatic and political issues are involved”.

      That’s like the message being “95% of people want ice cream for dinner, so vote out mom & dad and let’s go with the guy in the creepy van”