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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Well said. Genocide has a few definitions, but all involve the intent for wholesale destruction of an ethnic or religious group.

    In most cases, we look for large population drops of established groups due to murderous actions as a way to infer intent. The systematic killing of 99% of the Vietnamese population living in Cambodia under Pol Pot might be the most clear example. The killing of ~80% of the Tutsi ethnic group in Rwanda is another.

    There are also small-scale examples, such as ISIS killing off ~5000 Iraqi Turkmen. In this case the ethnic group was only targeted in regions ISIS controlled, limiting the damage, but the intent to kill as many as possible was clear.

    How you apply this to Gaza is a personal value judgement right now. Only about 1% of the population has been killed, but there are also statements by some Israeli officials demonstrating intent, and some of the IDF actions are at best cavalier.


  • I believe they would, because Hamas is the one putting out these numbers and they have every incentive to do this as a propaganda win.

    Teenage soldiers are a particularly tragic part of this war, being both victims and legitimate targets. Hamas has used child soldiers extensively in the past, and given that the average age in Gaza is about 17, we would expect a large fraction of Hamas soldiers to be teenagers. Further, they would represent the lowest ranking members who would be put in the most danger.

    Under IHL, if Israel captures a child soldier they are required to separate them from other POWs and give them counseling and treatment. As a practical matter though, it may be difficult to verify that someone with no ID is 17. It will be interesting to see to what extent they complied with this in a few years.




  • Many of the casualties in the chaos that erupted in Gaza at a food distribution site were killed as a result of aid trucks ramming people as people tried to escape Israeli fire, according to a local journalist in Gaza, Khadeer Al Za’anoun.

    Al Za’anoun, who was at the scene and witnessed the incident, told CNN that, though there were large crowds waiting for food to be distributed from aid trucks, the chaos and confusion that led to trampling only started once Israeli soldiers opened fire.

    “Most of the people that were killed were rammed by the aid trucks during the chaos and while trying to escape the Israeli gunfire,” he said.

    He said that around 20 were killed directly by the gunfire, and the rest were killed under the aid trucks’ wheels.

    CNN says 20 people were shot, triggering a stampede that killed a lot more. Where did this site get “thousands”?





  • My read of the article was that “most transparent genocide of all time” meant “most obviously occurring genocide when viewed in real time”. I think that’s a fair take having checked again. With that definition in mind, the claim is laughably hyperbolic.

    The majority opinion, backed by the ICJ, is that Gaza has the potential to devolve into genocide but currently does not meet the definition. So we’re already wildly off the claim. Add to that literally dozens of past genocides that were widely reported on and universally recognized as such and the claim just falls apart.