3/7 incumbent presidents since 1980 have lost. It’s indistinguishable from a coin flip. Whatever benefit incumbency holds in the presidency, it’s not strong.
3/7 incumbent presidents since 1980 have lost. It’s indistinguishable from a coin flip. Whatever benefit incumbency holds in the presidency, it’s not strong.
She’s too old to replace a president for being too old, but she’s younger than Biden was when he was nominated.
A Big Two party can nominate someone out on the fringes, but then they will cede the general election to the other party if the other party runs a centrist candidate.
Phew, I’m glad we could never end up with a President Trump leading Republican party running rightward as fast as possible then.
Maybe centrist political wisdom is actually just trash and things like charisma, inspiration, and vision actually matter rather than some idea that all voters are on a single axis “politics” line.
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I believe The Rock, despite his amusing connections with Elizabeth Warren, is actually a left-moving former-Republican. Not exactly a hard no in the Democratic party, but we can probably find a charismatic person who’s at least center-left.
And notably it wouldn’t just be a decree from on high, it’d be officially picked by the delegates. There was still (technically) a primary this year, with delegates heading to a convention to vote on who becomes the nominee. I’m sure there will be a lot of backroom plotting to try to figure out a good replacement before the open votes start, but at least there’s an air of legitimacy as (many of) the people who officially make the decision have some connection to votes cast. It’s more an appearance thing than actually separating the pick from “the party establishment”, but that’s a pretty important aspect.
At his age the cold he supposedly had is a potential career ender. “He just had a cold that made him feeble” isn’t a great alternative explanation when you’re talking about an 81 year old.
If the Democrats could ever get to that choice it would be an autowin and an instant rejuvenation for the party.
Out of respect for a great woman/man! Not being disrespectful to important people is much more important than human rights or democracy.
I don’t think Harris guarantees a Trump win, even if she’s clearly a riskier pick than a more popular Democrat. And I don’t think she is a good pick. I feel like either party could win simply by putting up a younger and more competent candidate, but their internal politics prevented that. Harris, for all her focus-group flip-flops and questionable past, would be able to respond directly and forcefully to Trump while conveying a capability to do the job. For all the bad vibes Biden put off with his oldness and feebleness last night, in my opinion not effectively attacking Trump was the real loss.
And to be clear, I think she’s a terrible choice. She was a terrible choice when she was picked for VP and they’ve done nothing in four years to groom her as a successor, but I think the race is still tight and there’s so much potential for gain simply not being 80 that her risks don’t put us in a worse place. We’d be better with someone else, but I’m not sure the cost of passing over the black female VP when there’s no other clear leader to coronate would be worth what will already be a chaotic decision.
My opinion has always been governmental spaces, especially those on or near the buildings lawmakers use, should always be an allowed campground for homeless people. They’re the ones most responsible for the problem, they should have to see it every time they go to work.
Or just anyone who’s not clued in. Trumpland will vote even if they know he’s lying. It’s the people that barely pay attention to politics that will hear a confident politician say something and assume it’s true.
Trump will be advertising.
It gets really interested if both happen simultaneously and we as a nation have to all just sit in awkward silence for 3 minutes wondering how we got here.
How much of this is not-crossing without an asylum option available and how much is not actively seeking out Border Patrol agents in order to surrender?
Around the same time Bowman had his own poll (the DMFI poll is effectively a pro-Latimer poll) with him up +1. Also weak for an incumbent, but there’s no reason to place the baseline at -17. AIPAC money almost certainly had a strong effect on the race, otherwise they wouldn’t have felt spending $14.5 million was a good use of their donation money. That’s fully half of all their expenditures reported thus far. The people with full time jobs focused on influencing US policy very much believe spending money influences elections.
He’s carrying on a tradition for the House leader to endorse and support (with varying levels of “support”) all House incumbents. It’s not an indication of policy agreement or friendship, it’s just if you’re an incumbent, he supports you.
Which is… fine. It’s probably good that the House leader isn’t supporting primary opponents to people in his caucus. But of course some support will be a lot more substantial than others. Pelosi (when she was leader) went to the mat for Henry Cuellar in his previous close primary against a progressive, but would just give perfunctory endorsements to progressive incumbents. When most people know you endorse based simply on incumbency, it’s not really much of an endorsement.
You literally started the argument you’re now upset about. For some reason you thought it was important enough to tell me I was wrong, but after people told you your interpretation is wrong (or at best, in your evaluation, pointless) you’re suddenly wondering why we’re even talking about it.
You didn’t read the summary and felt compelled to make a point no one else here or in political coverage agrees with, just tuck your tail and slink away.
It’s literally the first line of the summary. There was a district that most closely matched her previous one, but she’s running in a district she doesn’t live in because it would be easier to win.
She’s not good. She was rejected in the 2020 primary and I think she was a terrible choice for VP. Everyone in progressive circles is right to hold her time as AG against her. But Joe Biden literally wrote the crime bill, which is way worse, and that wasn’t a disqualifier. I wish that a terrible history of racial injustice was disqualifying for Democrats, but it’s just not.