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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • I think we have a different understanding of ranked choice.

    In your example, you have 3 candidates, and candidate 3 isn’t very popular. He isn’t many people’s first choice. At the end of round 1, candidate 1 has 45% of the first choice votes, candidate 2 has 46% of the first choice votes, and candidate 3 has 9% of the first choice votes. Candidate 3 is then eliminated, and those who voted for him have their votes go to their second choice candidate. That should leave either candidate 1 or 2 winning. The only way he wins is if he had more first choice votes than one of the other candidates.

    If someone who is everyone’s second choice but no one’s first choice wins, that sounds like approval voting or something similar, not ranked choice.

    Edit: Looking at the referenced election, it looks like he was the most popular among the people who didn’t want the 2 popular candidates. The first round was 8 candidates and a simple ballot. The second round was a runoff election with the 3 most popular candidates and a ranked choice ballot. He won the first round of that. No one had 50%, so instant runoff, but he also won the second round of that.

    To avoid that situation, you would have had to change the run-off rules to only allow the 2 top people instead of the 3 top people. But it still was an in person run off that gave you the result you dislike.






  • You’re missing fear. Which is a really important tool. Possibly the most important one.

    But yeah, happiness, fear, anger and sadness are the basic emotions. But that’s like red, blue, and yellow were the basic colors you used in elementary school painting. You get different degrees and different blends of them and that’s where the complexity comes in. Rage, anger, annoyance? Different degrees of anger. Anticipation? It’s some degree of happiness and fear. Grief? Usually some happiness, fear, and a lot of sadness.





  • The reason people go to “No relationship with reality” is because many people use the polls to say “will” instead of “favored” or conflate “will” and “favored.” When that’s the standard you are often presented, of course you are going to come to conclusion polling doesn’t have all that much to do with reality. Because it isn’t that predictive. Especially when you’re looking at things where we take this somewhat fuzzy number and turn it into a binary yes or no while the cloud of possibilities comfortably encompasses both outcomes.

    So when talking to some making definitive statements about the outcome of an election based on polls, how they are using polls only has a tenuous relationship to reality.





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    17 days ago

    The person you expect to be sad also wanted to end the relationship because they realized they wanted children and were married to someone who didn’t. It isn’t just about the perspective/agenda of the trans person.

    If I was faced with a choice between breaking someone who I loved’s heart or never being a mother, it would be relieving to have that no longer be weighing on me.






  • Don’t worry. You likely wouldn’t remember even if you were taught. 5280 feet/mile is just not worth the brain space. Neither is 8 pints/gallon. I don’t think you would convert between the two often enough to make it useful information to just know.

    And I do have to look up those prefixes for the less used ones. It’s exa then peta or peta then exa and what’s bigger than them? What’s smaller than nano? I don’t remember because it rarely comes up. But I’m in tech, so it’s starting to more.