His advantage may not be as stable as it looks.

The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.

Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results — and the story line — about the election.

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  • Paragone@lemmy.world
    012·
    1 month ago

    AND…

    Biden is cruising on presumed institutional entitlement/inertia.

    The economic-house-of-cards that Biden’s ( & many other ) administrations are propping-up as desparately as they can cannot fail to go down, eventually.

    No matter how many push the walls of a corrupt building, in a gathering-storm, pushing-on-the-walls won’t prevent its collapsing.

    IF that house-of-cards collapses in September ( -ish ), THEN Biden’s ejected, simply through backlash vote.

    Period.

    All of the “everything else is going to fight-off-change, but only this single factor may change, and that will decide the outcome” make-believe projections are bogus.

    Let the data, Universe’s speech, itself, speak.

    I guarantee you that it won’t happen the way simplistic-projections assert in advance.

    AND the political-actors affect things… AND the contextual-circumstances affect things… AND I’ve read that Putin’s working to make-certain that the way his war on Ukraina happens shoves the US toward Trump, and believe that to be a natural given.

    AND ClimatePunctuation is still accelerating, so maybe the “it’s all a hoax!!” ideology will have more “proof” that it’s the left who is creating all the extra hurricanes… ( given the way bias works, that’s likely, and I’m not by any measure pretending that the bias of the left is ignorable: it just fixates on different things, & ignores different things.

    See the Snopes item on how Biden’s daughter’s court-testimony does corroborate Joe Biden being pedophiliac, as he shared her showering, while she was a girl, thus that court-testimony corroborates all the photos of him holding other people’s little-girls right in front of his crotch, for the photo’d-together shots, that the left won’t admit are real. They’re sickening.

    Exactly as the people who died from multiple-organ-failure from taking Ivermectin, in order to protect them against Sars-Cov-2 which they were told didn’t even exist also is sickening.

    Integrity isn’t allowed, by political-motivation.

    Natural Selection’s going to be chopping-down this world’s population drastically this century.

    I don’t expect more than 2% of humankind to survive this century, even though the bible gives 1/3 survival for The Great Filter, both in the old testament & in the new ( OK, so Rev gives 1/3 survival for 2nd-seal & 3rd-seal, and ignores all the death in the other stages, but it’s still no-where near the 98% eradication I’m seeing as likely )

    Surprises are going to happen.

    And ignoring all factors except 1, in order to make predictions in political contests, is, unless that 1 is decisive, phony.

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