I think we’re the first. Or rather in the first wave of intelligent life. It could take a thousand years just for a message to reach us. On the theory that life has evolved to this point as fast as possible over the life of our Galaxy, there’s no filter. There just hasn’t been enough time for contact to occur.

I don’t think there is a single universal Great filter, and living and then potentially sentient beings with various traits will face various obstacles.

First, life needs suitable materials for polymers and a lot of energy. Most places don’t have both.

Next, basic blocks of life that would be self-replicating and adaptive should be randomly generated, which is extremely unlikely and literally took over a billion years on Earth, a planet with generally great conditions for such process.

Then, those blocks should be able to get together to form complex structures - ideally, many separate ones, so that one event wouldn’t destroy the entire effort. Earth had it easy, with billions of super simple life forms.

Next, assuming life survived up to this point in a potentially unfriendly and ever-changing environment, bombarded by UV light and exposed to myriad of sources of damage, it should not destroy itself or environment too badly to never recover. Earth had periods when life generated too much carbon dioxide or too much oxygen (yes, that too was a thing), and those were critical points at which our story could very much end.

Then, life has to evolutionize and get into complex forms, either by forming multicellular organisms or by making a cell a powerhouse of everything.

Then, life has to get sentient, and some kind of response system should be available and get highly complex.

Then, most of the sentient creatures just won’t be tribal, and civilization requires society and a common effort.

Then, many more won’t be expansionist, and will die out in some small region.

Many also won’t be competitive, which would slow down evolution.

For those species who are competitive, they shouldn’t destroy each other while they’re at it, and this is currently one of the risks of our own.

And after all that, they should develop space travel and either get as developed and decisive and resource-rich as to send a generational ship to some random planet named Earth populated by genocidal monkeys, or to somehow hyperdrive here. They can very much decide it’s not worth it, and they may be so far away we couldn’t see signs of their civilization.

I don’t think life is rare, nor photosynthesis, but complex life might be. A planet needs to be really thriving with life for it to be worth it to go down the path to something like animals

But I think the bigger filter is much stranger.

Humans are a hive-like species. We’re not just social - we’re insanely interdependent, we don’t function on our own and yet we’ve ended up in this place where we (often) try to individually succeed, even at the cost to our community

We’re greedy enough to want the stars, yet interdependent enough we could only swarm over them in endless numbers

There’s many problems with the fermi “paradox”, but personally I think one of the largest is assuming all species would spread like a cancer blotting out the stars

A more individualistic and long lived species might instead be careful explorers, taking what they need and leaving little sign of their passage. A more communal species might be careful and control themselves to not destroy pointlessly. They might also feel no desire to contact other species

We’re just the right mix to want everything a star could give, and to want to find others at great energy cost

sentience. I think it usually immediately leads to suicide

evidence of human existence has only gotten what, 150 lightyears out into space?

Pushing Ice by Alastair Reynolds is one of my favorite scifi books and it deals with this question in an interesting way. It proposes that Time is the great filter. Life exists in this galaxy, but intelligent life is so fleeting when considering galactic distances that the probability of one sentient lifeform finding another during their “peaks” is vanishingly small. Extinction, societal collapse, evolution to a higher form, whatever you want to imagine, it all gets in the way of the fantasy of meeting a thinking being from another planet.

seriously though, I think life on other planets probably just usually evolves underground, so even if they develop some sort of intelligence they’re not looking up at the sky so they have no motivation to explore beyond their atmosphere no matter how advanced they get.

there was a planet in The hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy universe that had thick cloud cover so that people never even conceived of an existence beyond their planet. when a spaceship crashed there, it never even occurred to them that it might have come from the sky

Even if you had a super intelligent species that can make Dyson spheres and travel at the speed of light the observable universe is beyond vast. I don’t know much about cosmology or our ability to detect light but given humans have only been looking into the sky for a couple centuries, not being able to see a thimble in the ocean seems like a non issue. I think if you scale the observable universe down to the size of earth the speed of light becomes 0.05 mph.

Boy, Lemmy sucks donkey dick. For every one legitimate answer there are two or three edgelord answers like “capitalism” and “the internet”.

Here’s an answer that hasn’t come up yet: cooperation among mono cellular organisms. I don’t mean the development of polyp analogues or colonies of single celled organisms; I mean getting down to mitochondria. Brace for wild oversimplification.

Before mitochondria, life had a hard time creating enough energy to do much more than barely stay alive. The current line of thinking is that one organism ate another and didn’t digest it. The two organisms worked symbiotically, one handled energy production and the other handled getting food and staying alive.

Just about every living thing utilizes mitochondria and if the current idea that mitochondria were actually symbiotic organisms is true, that means that what was likely a chance “sparing” of prey is the underpinning of all complex life.

The odds of that happening are ridiculously low. There could be simple life in tons of places even within our own star system, but if the mitochondria-like symbiotic capture never happens for those extraterrestrial organisms, then complex life is probably unlikely to develop.

Energy needed to leave your planetary system vs energy available on your planet of origin.

We have not yet overcome it and I am not sure that we will achieve it.

If there really is a cosmic web and information flows through it, the other solar system will know that we’re coming to destroy another world, but it will have developed defensive techniques against a known disease, humans. The same our immune systems does to known viruses.

I went a bit creative with this one.

For us it’s conservatism and its synonyms.

It may very well be republicans

I think most lifeforms will have more pressing matters than wasting large amounts of time an energy blasting signals in to space for no reason, or listening to the sky.

Maybe those civilizations that waste more energy chasing aliens die off sooner due to wasting resources on sci-fi bullshit and ignoring their real problems at home.

I’m sure simply continuing to live will show me more about possible great filters than most teachers could unfortunately.